By Mark McGillivray (eds.)
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Based on current trends, UNFPA (no date) estimate that there will be 46 million new HIV infections by 2010, but only a third that number (17 million) with an appropriate policy response. 8). Even the most pessimistic estimates suggest nonetheless that prevalence will decline, reflecting the belief that within 15 years (by around 2020) there will be no new AIDS cases. As AIDS in Africa is brought somewhat under control, attention is shifting to Asia, where the epidemic is in its early stages: the number of AIDS-related deaths in Asia will quadruple in the next 15 to 20 years, compared with an increase of about a third in Africa.
6, which shows the actual annual levels of global aid from 1990 to 2006 as well as anticipated or projected levels, based on donor pledges and forward commitments, to 2010. 6 have been obtained from OECD sources (2007a; 2007b; 2007c). A scaling up of ODA is clearly evident and the level of these flows in 2005, which amounted to $US107 billion, is the highest ever provided by OECD DAC members. The scaling up did not, however, result in the hoped-for doubling of ODA by 2006. In fact the level of ODA in 2006 fell back from its 2005 level, albeit slightly, to $US104 billion.
The total number of poor in 2015 (736 million) sits well within the range of earlier World Bank estimates, though it is higher than their current projection. The headcount ratio is highest in West and East Africa. Central Africa appears better off than Central and South America but it should be recalled that most of the African countries do not have data, especially those countries affected by conflict, where poverty will be high. 2). 2, the reasonable progress in reducing income poverty is not usually sufficient to meet the MDG of halving poverty by 2015.
Achieving the Millennium Development Goals by Mark McGillivray (eds.)